CME Q2 2025: 90K New Retail Traders (+56%), Int'l Volumes +18%
- Retail Expansion & Cross-Selling: CME reported 90,000 new retail traders in Q2 2025—a 56% increase YoY—accompanied by record micro contract volumes and growing participation across asset classes like crypto, equities, and metals. This indicates robust retail adoption and cross-selling opportunities with higher educated traders entering the market.
- Robust International Growth: The international business achieved record average daily volume of 9,200,000 contracts, up 18% YoY, with EMEA growing by 15% and APAC by 30%. This diverse, multi-region expansion underscores a broadening client base and increasing global demand for CME’s diverse product suite.
- Innovative Product Offerings & Operational Efficiency: Product innovations such as FX Spot Plus and advancements in tokenization, along with strong responses in Q&A discussions on market resilience and liquidity, signal CME’s ability to capture new market segments and further monetize its core trading infrastructure in a risk management–focused environment.
- High global debt and macro uncertainties: Management pointed out record debt levels in both the U.S. and Europe, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia–Ukraine, Israel–Palestine), which could increase market unpredictability and pressure trading volumes in the future.
- Regulatory hurdles in crypto products: The executives noted that certain crypto products, particularly perpetual futures, face regulatory restrictions in the U.S., potentially limiting CME’s ability to expand in this rapidly growing segment.
- Uncertain retail trader maturity: While CME reported a record influx of 90,000 new retail traders, management cautioned that new participants typically have a learning curve before becoming active, which may delay sustained revenue contributions from this segment.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +10% | Total revenue rose to $1,692.0 million in Q2 2025 from $1,532.5 million in Q2 2024, driven by broad-based gains across segments—with significant increases in interest rates (+17.5%), equity indexes (+12.5%), clearing and transaction fees (+11%), and market data (+13%) offsetting the decline in interest rate swap revenue. |
Interest Rates Segment | +17.5% | Interest rates revenue increased to $461.6 million from $393.0 million, largely attributable to heightened market volatility and record trading volumes seen in prior periods, which continued to fuel robust activity in interest rate products. |
Equity Indexes Segment | +12.5% | Equity indexes revenue grew to $301.6 million from $268.2 million, benefiting from increased market volatility and strong retail participation that built upon trends seen in earlier periods, leading to improved performance. |
Clearing and Transaction Fees | +11% | Clearing and transaction fees increased to $1,388.0 million from $1,249.9 million, driven by a 13% rise in total contract volume and fee structure changes—echoing previous period trends where increased trading activity outweighed a small decline in the average rate per contract. |
Market Data and Information Services | +13% | Market data revenue reached $198.1 million, up from $175.0 million, supported by a 3.5% pricing increase, strong subscriber growth, and additional nonrecurring true-ups, consistent with improvements noted in earlier periods. |
Interest Rate Swap Revenue | -11.5% | Interest rate swap revenue fell to $20.6 million from $23.3 million, likely reflecting a shift in customer trading preferences and structural changes in product demand, contrasting with the previously strong performance in the interest rate complex. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total adjusted operating expenses | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $1,635,000,000 | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Retail Trader Growth | Previous calls consistently discussed record new client acquisition, robust retail participation, and improved trader education. For example, Q1 highlighted over 83,000 new traders and strong micro product engagement ( ), while Q3 and Q4 detailed increased volumes and cross‐selling into diverse asset classes ( ). | In Q2 2025, retail growth was emphasized with 90,000 new traders (56% year-over-year increase), increased regional participation, and enhanced education through a new trading simulator ( ). | **Consistent strong growth and maturing retail participation with ongoing product diversification. ** |
International Growth | Previous periods (Q1, Q3, Q4) reported record international volumes, broad-based asset class growth, and deep geographic diversification, with notable performance in EMEA and APAC ( ). | Q2 2025 reported its highest-ever international volume with 9.2 million contracts per day, driven by growth in EMEA and APAC across multiple asset classes ( ). | **Continued record growth and expanding global market reach. ** |
Product Innovation & Technology Investments | Earlier calls (Q1, Q3, Q4) introduced new offerings such as BrokerTec Chicago, FX Spot Plus, micro agricultural products, climate/weather products, and detailed cloud migration initiatives with significant spending ( ). | Q2 2025 emphasized strategic technology investments with the launch of a new trading simulator and a key Google Cloud partnership to support tokenization initiatives ( ). | **Sustained focus on innovation with an evolving emphasis on technology integration and data-driven tools. ** |
Cryptocurrency Derivatives & Regulatory Challenges | Q3 and Q4 2024 emphasized a cautious but growing approach to crypto derivatives with significant volume gains, regulatory compliance, and strategies awaiting SEC clarity ( ). Q1 2025 did not address the topic specifically. | Q2 2025 showcased significant crypto trading growth (e.g., 190,000 ADV, record large open interest), while reiterating challenges with perpetual futures regulations and ongoing tokenization tests ( ). | **Rapid product growth amid ongoing regulatory caution and evolving compliance efforts. ** |
Risk Management, Margin Optimization & Liquidity Concerns | Across Q1, Q3, and Q4, robust risk management was a key theme with proactive margin adjustments, cross‐margining programs delivering billions in savings, and record volumes driving liquidity improvements ( ). | Q2 2025 continued the focus with record risk management volumes (over 30.2 million contracts), demonstrated capital efficiency improvements and highlighted deep liquidity pools amid uncertainties ( ). | **Steady priority on risk management with proactive margin optimization and strong liquidity, reflecting market volatility. ** |
Commodity & Energy Market Dynamics | Q1, Q3, and Q4 2024 consistently reported record commodity and energy volumes, robust participation across segments (metals, energy, agriculture), and significant impacts from tariffs and geopolitical forces ( ). | In Q2 2025, commodity and energy dynamics were driven by global supply chain realignments, tariff-induced price differentials, and record activity attributed to geopolitical uncertainties ( ). | **Continued robust activity driven by geopolitical tensions and tariff pressures, maintaining strong market performance. ** |
Macro-Economic & Geopolitical Uncertainties | Previous discussions in Q1, Q3, and Q4 underscored risks from geopolitical tensions, increased debt levels, and market volatility, with a focus on the impact on risk management and trading volumes ( ). | Q2 2025 reiterated high global debt levels, ongoing conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), and trade disputes as key drivers for heightened risk management needs and market realignment ( ). | **Persistent external uncertainties continue to drive demand for risk management and shape market strategies. ** |
Execution & Integration Risks of New Platform Launches | Q1 2025 briefly mentioned the planned BrokerTec Chicago launch with structured testing and client feedback to mitigate risks ( ). Earlier periods barely addressed this topic. | Q2 2025 did not mention any execution or integration risks for new platform launches. | **Topic has largely faded from the discourse as focus shifts to other strategic priorities. ** |
Fee & Revenue per Contract Dynamics | Discussions in Q1, Q3, and Q4 examined fee adjustments, slight declines in average rates versus volume surges, and strategic pricing changes to boost overall revenue ( ). | Q2 2025 reported an average rate per contract of $0.69 and record fee revenues ($1.4 billion, up 11% YoY), indicating continued success in balancing volume and pricing strategies ( ). | **Overall positive revenue dynamics maintained through volume growth and strategic fee adjustments despite minor rate pressures. ** |
Competitive Pressures from Alternative Trading Platforms | Q3 and Q4 2024 addressed competitive challenges, with discussions on SOFR futures, competitor platforms like FMX, and the importance of U.S. resolution authority; Q1 had little focused commentary ( ). | Q2 2025 did not specifically emphasize competitive pressures, although leadership continued to stress confidence in their regulated position and risk management strengths ( ). | **Less emphasis in Q2 as CME maintains its competitive edge and confidence in its market position, despite broader industry competition. ** |
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Macro Hedging
Q: Key drivers for robust hedging in H2?
A: Management noted that persistent geopolitical tensions, high global debt, and market volatility establish a solid environment for clients to manage risk, even though forecasting exact volumes remains challenging. -
Retail & Crypto
Q: How is retail/crypto growth measured?
A: They highlighted the addition of 90,000 new traders—up 56%—with increased participation across asset classes including crypto, demonstrating strong digital adoption amid regulatory caution. -
Expense Guidance
Q: What drove the lower expense guidance?
A: Management trimmed guidance by $15M due to an optimized spend on the Google migration and reduced professional services costs, reflecting a disciplined cost approach. -
Capital Deployment
Q: How will capital be deployed?
A: They plan to utilize an opportunistic mix of buybacks and dividends, while remaining receptive to selective growth initiatives, maintaining their balanced capital strategy. -
FX Spot Plus
Q: What’s the uptake for FX Spot Plus?
A: Launched in April, FX Spot Plus has achieved a single-day volume of $2.7B and attracted nearly 50 new banking participants, signaling promising early adoption. -
Collateral Management
Q: How are new collateral requirements working?
A: Following policy updates, average collateral rose to $316B with cash at about $133B and non-cash at $145B, with July figures showing steady trends. -
Physical Commodities
Q: How did tariffs impact commodities trading?
A: Tariff-related basis shifts have driven record volumes and enhanced options activity in metals and energy, as clients increasingly manage associated risks. -
Stablecoin & Tokenization
Q: Any progress on tokenization?
A: Through a partnership with Google, they’re advancing a tokenization platform—targeting a 2026 launch—to improve efficiency in transferring value, albeit cautiously. -
24/7 Trading
Q: What hinders 24/7 trading adoption?
A: The main challenges are the significant staffing costs and the need for market readiness, with expectations that continuous trading will likely be limited to crypto futures for now. -
Nasdaq License
Q: Any changes in Nasdaq license economics?
A: There’s no change in economic terms—the license has simply been extended through 2039 on the same conditions. -
Retail Maturity
Q: How quickly do new traders ramp up?
A: New retail traders typically start modestly and mature gradually, supported by extensive educational efforts that help them evolve across multiple product lines. -
Treasury Trading
Q: What is the status of treasury trading?
A: BrokerTec remains the leader, posting record volumes for on-the-run Treasuries and strong repo market activity, underscoring its robust competitive position. -
Bank Capital Regulation
Q: Impact of potential bank capital relief?
A: Pending final regulatory decisions, SLR relief is expected to free up bank balance sheets, potentially supporting increased risk management activity. -
RPC Outlook
Q: How do trade mixes affect RPC?
A: While increased international activity helps boost RPC, the rise of smaller retail and micro contracts exerts a moderating effect; overall revenue growth remains the key focus. -
International Business
Q: What drives international volume growth?
A: Record international volumes—up 18% overall—are driven by strong sales execution in regions like EMEA and APAC, highlighting effective global market penetration. -
Collateral Trends Q3
Q: What is the collateral exit trend into Q3?
A: Early July data show cash balances steady at around $132B with non-cash levels slightly increasing, reaching a total average of $321B. -
Legal Issues
Q: Status on floor trader litigation trial?
A: Management refrained from detailed commentary on ongoing litigation, noting no reserves have been recorded so far.
Research analysts covering CME GROUP.